September 23, 2008

The dollar collapsed on Monday, reflecting extreme gains in oil and gold, amid unclear details about the Treasury’s plans to save banks by removing their debilitating mortgage assets and fears that a recession in the US is finally inevitable. And news that Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley have turned overnight from big investment banks to regulated banks undermined the US currency as it made it clear how close we came to a financial meltdown. Again, the market remains illiquid and directions may change very quickly. The dollar should slow down its decline today and there is a chance that it may even advance against the yen. Keep an eye on Fed’s Bernanke.

Euro/dollar

The euro/dollar surged on Monday and my model remains long. More strength is likely, but at a reduced pace.

Initial resistance is at 1.4960. Above 1.5020, resistance is now seen at 1.5215.

Immediate support is at 1.4705. The next level is 1.4655. This is followed by 1.4485.

Oscillators are rising.

NEAR-TERM: Slightly bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Bearish

Dollar/yen

Dollar/yen fell on Monday to reverse all of the gains made a day earlier. Once again, the yen remains an ingredient for crosses and lacks much direction. My model remains long, but the medium-term outlook remains mixed.

Initial support is at 105.10. The next level is 104.50 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 104.00 and 105.00. Distant support is 103.40 from another 50-point pivot, which targets 102.90 and 103.90.

Immediate resistance is at 105.60 from a 50-point pivot that targets 105.10 and 106.10. Further resistance looms at 106.75 from another 50-point pivot, which targets 106.25 and 107.25.

Oscillators are mixed.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bearish
LONG-TERM: Mixed

Sterling/dollar

Sterling/dollar surged further on Monday and my model remains long. The upside remains favored in the short term, but only a break above 1.8725 would warrant more strength.

Above this level, the next level comes at 1.8800. Distant resistance is at 1.9115.

Immediate support is at 1.8475. Below 1.8250, distant support remains at 1.8110.

Oscillators are rising.

NEAR-TERM: Slightly bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Bearish

Dollar/Swiss franc

Dollar/Swiss franc collapsed on Monday and my model remains short. The initial bias remains bearish, but only a break below 1.0660 signals further weakness.

Below this level, support is now pegged at 1.0535. This is followed by 1.0380.

Initial resistance moved down to 1.0820. The next levels are 1.0880 and 1.1000.

Oscillators are bearish.

NEAR-TERM: Slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Bullish